Inside Nascar - Johnson will be the one celebrating

Kyle Busch had a spectacular regular season with eight wins and 15 top-fives in 26 races. Carl Edwards was second best, six wins and 11 top-fives. Those are great performances backed up by great numbers from drivers who will be forces in Sprint Cup for years to come.

But neither will win the championship this season. Jimmie Johnson has a rendezvous with history. He’ll become the second driver to win three straight, equaling Carl Yarborough’s record run that concluded 30 years ago.

Johnson’s back-to-back victories heading into the Chase opener Sunday at New Hampshire certainly give him and the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet team big-time momentum and confidence. Momentum is good to have, but is overrated in a 10-race playoff. It could be gone by Sunday night if Johnson runs into some trouble, like he did in the Chase race at Loudon in 2006, when he finished 39th.

Confidence is a more enduring attribute. Johnson’s has been consistently built over the course of a remarkable career. He’s made the Chase in all five years. He’s never finished out of the top five in the championship in his six previous seasons. He has 37 victories. It will take more than a bad result or two to shake up Johnson.

From confidence, Johnson derives poise. He’s calm in the caldron of the Chase, able to communicate what he needs in the car and stay out of trouble on the track. Johnson’s demeanor is contagious, spreading throughout the No. 48 team. When can you last remember a lug nut being loose or a jackman hung up a bit too long or a tire rolling down pit road?

Then, consider the experience factor. Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have the most productive working relationship in Cup. They’ve been there and done that better than anyone. Knaus instinctively has a knack for making just the right call — two tires, four tires, no tires — at the right time. Like Johnson, Knaus doesn’t get rattled. Together, they have the ability to work through problems with clear, precise thought.

At the Chase tracks, Johnson has an overall performance edge over Busch and Edwards. He didn’t in the first half of the regular season, but all the testing they’ve done has paid off. Johnson’s four wins this season are at Phoenix, Indianapolis, Fontana and Richmond, four distinctly different tracks. Johnson and Knaus know how to adjust to that narrow window in the Car of Today and to the different tires brought by Goodyear.

The Chase schedule is top-heavy with five races on 1.5-mile tracks, which favors Edwards. Johnson was second at Texas, which is in the Chase, and Chicago, which is similar to Kansas. With his increased speed late in the season, Johnson will perform well on the 1.5s, maybe even win a couple. He did last year, at Atlanta and Texas.

The Chase also has Martinsville, where Johnson was fourth in the spring, won last year in the fall and has four wins in his Cup career, Dover, Talladega and Phoenix. He was seventh at Dover and 13th at Talladega the first time around this season.

Momentum, confidence, experience, maturity, poise, it all adds up to Johnson’s battle readiness in the Chase. He’s got the mental toughness that will make a difference.

“Momentum is certainly something we are looking at and trying to carry, but more than anything, I think we are just confident in our stops and what I’m doing on the track and the way we can adjust on the car,” Johnson said following Sunday’s win at Richmond.

Johnson is confident, not overconfident. He wants to take it to the water’s edge without getting wet.

“I’m trying to show up at [Loudon] scared, worried about 11 other guys and worried about doing my part,” he said. “I have confidence in what my abilities are and what my team is capable of and the packages we have put together in the last five or six months, short track, big track, all of it.

“With the way the pack is running, especially the 99 [Edwards] and the 18 [Busch], you can’t show up and run at 80 percent and just hope at top-10 is going to get the job done. You have to show up and bring your A game each week. I feel confident that we are there now and that we can run with these guys.”

Busch’s season has been amazing in that he’s won on all types of tracks. But two were road courses and there are none in the Chase. Two were restrictor plate races, Talladega and Daytona, and he has only one in the Chase. Busch won at Dover in the spring, but wasn’t particularly good at Loudon (25th) or Phoenix (10th). He’ll be good at the 1.5s, but so will Edwards and Johnson.

The biggest factor in Busch’s performance will be how crew chief Steve Addington and the No. 18 Toyota team handle the pressure of the Chase. It will be the first time in it for Addington.

Edwards has been strong everywhere and carries some momentum into the Chase with three wins in the past six races. He was second in the three races before that. At 29 and in his fourth full Cup season, Edwards and the No. 99 Ford team led by crew chief Bob Osborne have the speed to win the championship.

The key for Edwards is execution, on pit stops and making changes during the race. It’s the one area where the No. 99 falls slightly short in a championship fight.

The Chase will be decided among this season’s Big Three. Busch and Edwards have legitimate shots and will make it interesting, but it will be Johnson celebrating at Homestead-Miami.